In Part 1, we analyzed the following tools to find the real price: Margin (showed us the bookmaker’s cut), De-Vig (stripped it out to reveal the true odds), and Arbitrage (checked for guaranteed-profit gaps between books). Link to Part 1 here!

Both the Margin and De-vig tool answer the question of how worth is betting in a specific market. 

Part 2 is about what you do next. Once you know the fair price, two tools turn it into an actual bet:

• EV tells you whether a bet is worth making.
• Kelly Stake tells you exactly how much to put on it.

As before, every number below comes from one real match: Argentina vs Cape Verde, playing today at the World Cup. Open the same game on your screen and follow along.

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⚽ Our Live Example: Argentina vs Cape Verde

Here’s the Full Time Result market with Pinnacle (a sharp book) selected. We are using the same colour code as Part 1:

• 🔵 Blue is the live bookmaker odds (margin included)
• 🟡 Yellow is the true de-vigged price
• 🔴 Red is the opening odds

(Remember, those colours are fully customizable in your settings)

Reading the three prices straight off the Full Time Result line:

Outcome	🔵 Current (Bettable)	🟡 True (De-Vigged)	🔴 Opening
Argentina	1.15	1.16	1.16
Draw	8.75	10.06	8.47
Cape Verde	20.00	24.26	19.52

Notice how the true (yellow) odds are all longer than the bettable (blue) ones, that’s the bookmaker’s margin at work. 

Argentina barely moves (1.15 → 1.16) because the favourites carry almost none of the vig, while the Draw and Cape Verde stretch out much more going from 20.00 → 24.260.

Pinnacle’s total margin here is only about 3%, which is exactly why a sharp book is the right benchmark to measure value. These  de-vigged yellow prices are the inputs for every tool below.

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💰 EV: Is This Bet Actually Worth It?

Expected Value (EV) is the most important number in value betting. It tells you, on average, how much you win or lose every time you place a given bet. Positive EV means the bet makes money long term; negative EV means it bleeds it. The tool compares the true odds against the odds a book is offering, if the odds are longer than they should be, you have an edge.

Our example: the yellow de-vig price puts the fair odds for the Draw at 10.06, a true probability of about 9.94%. Let’s check a real soft book. 

Ladbrokes had the Draw priced at 8.00. 

Plug it in fair odds 10.06, bookmaker odds 8.75, stake €100: EV = (9.94% × 8.00) − 1 = -20.48 %. 

As you can see, there is simply no value to be found here. Ladbrokes is pricing the draw shorter than the fair odds, meaning placing a bet on it will lose you money over the long term. 

That’s the honest part of value betting nobody puts in the ads: most of the time, the price you check is not a value bet. By the time you’ve manually flicked between a sharp book and five soft books comparing this exact market, any real gap has usually already closed. Finding a genuine +EV bet by hand is close to finding a needle in a haystack.

That’s exactly the moment BetUnfair’s Dropping Odds Alerts are built to catch. Instead of relying on luck with the single match you happen to have open, the system automatically scans every tracked fixture simultaneously, catching those soft-book delays the instant they occur.

Here’s what was live seconds before this screenshot was taken: 

• FSV Budissa Bautzen vs Dynamo Dresden’s Away dropped from 2.12 to 1.84, a 13.21% move, flagged 3 seconds ago. 
• SV Kuchl vs SC Golling’s Over 2.25 fell from 2.44 to 2.21, a 9.43% drop, 1 second ago. 
• FC Germania Teveren vs Alemannia Aachen moved 8.43%, 1 second ago.

That’s the difference between manual tracking and automation. Checking a single match by hand usually leads to a dead end, but the alerts feed delivers every sharp-book drop across every global match the instant it happens. 

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🎯 Kelly Stake: How Much Should You Bet?

Finding a +EV bet is only half the job. Bet too little and you leave money on the table, bet too much and you risk losing your money. The Kelly Stake tool takes your edge and your bankroll and calculates the mathematically optimal amount to bet. It tells you the exact size that grows your bankroll the fastest without risk.

Just like the Ladbrokes check earlier, this is the same bad price fed into a different tool: fair odds 10.06 against bookmaker odds of 8.0, an even worse gap than before. 

Kelly Stake flags it right away: “No edge — Kelly says don’t bet.”        That’s the real value of the tool, it’s not just a calculator, it refuses to size up a bet that has no opportunity of making profit.

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➕ Kelly Stake + BetUnfair

Let’s use a real alert instead of a hypothetical one, straight from BetUnfair’s Dropping Odds feature.

This alert popped up for Azzurri United FC vs Casuarina FC, Australia NT Premier League.

Three different Over/Under Full Time lines steamed at once (Over 5.75, Over 5.5, Over 5.25) dropping within seconds of each other, a classic sign a sharp book just reacted to a goal score. 

Of the three, we’re going to work with the Over 5.5 line: it just dropped from 1.69 to 1.53, a 9.45% move, with a fair (de-vigged) price of 1.65.

Spotting the drop is only step one. The Dropping Odds feed also lets you check, right from the same alert, which soft books haven’t caught up to that new price yet. Opening the soft-books four options: 

• Ladbrokes at 1.83
• Unibet at 2.18 
• Bwin at 2.10
• Stake at 1.79

Every one of them is still offering more than Pinnacle, +EV right now, but we’re using Unibet, at 2.18, because it’s paying out the most of the four. 

Now, let’s figure out your stake. Plug the fair odds (2.18) into the Kelly Calculator along with a €100 bankroll and a 100% Kelly Fraction. The tool returns:

• Expected Value (EV): +32.12%
• Full-Kelly Stake: €27.22

That EV is massive. Unibet is still pricing this market as if the recent drop never happened, and that’s the real edge. 

However, pushing over 27.22% would mean betting more than the odds actually justify. This is the difference between a bettor and a gambler: Kelly encourages you to bet hard when the math backs you, and pulls you back before that edge turns into a broken bankroll. 27.22% is the exact number that grows your money fastest with the least risk possible.

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🔜 Coming in Part 3

So far we have covered 5 out of 8 tools. In Part 3 we’ll cover Free Bet Converter, Odds Converter and Poisson. Stay tuned!

Want to try these on today’s matches yourself? Start your free 5-day BetUnfair trial at https://betunfair.io

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