In Part 1, we analyzed the following tools to find the real price: Margin showed us the bookmaker’s cut, De-Vig stripped it out to reveal the true odds, and Arbitrage checked for guaranteed-profit gaps between books. Link to Part 1 here.

In Part 2 we covered how to act once you know the fair price. Both EV and Kelly Stake tools turn that price advantage into an actual bet. Link to Part 2 here. 

In this blog, we finish the tools guide: the Free Bet Converter shows you what a promo is actually worth once you hedge it, the Odds Converter translates a price into whatever format you’re used to reading, and Poisson builds your own probability for a match before you ever check a bookmaker’s price against it.

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🎁 Free Bet Converter: What is it really worth?

Bookmakers love handing out free bets, but a €50 free bet is not €50 in cash because you don’t get the stake back, only the winnings. The Free Bet Converter tells you exactly how much real, guaranteed cash you can turn that free bet into.

Here’s an example:

Let’s say bet365 is giving out a $50 free bet, if you bet on Morocco for the win against Canada in tonight’s game, priced at odds of 1.77.

Since a free bet only returns winnings, that $50 free bet is only worth $50 × (1.77 − 1) = $38.50 in actual winnings if it comes in. To lock that in as cash regardless of the result, you hedge it by placing your own money on the opposite outcome elsewhere. At hedge odds of 5.24, the tool tells you to stake $7.35.

If you run the numbers both ways they land on the same place: if the free bet wins, you keep the $38.50 and lose your hedge stake ($7.35), netting $31.15. If the other side wins instead, your $7.35 hedge pays out $31.15 in profit. Either way, you walk away with about $31, guaranteed.

That’s a 62% conversion — you turned nearly two-thirds of the free bet’s value into real cash. Solid, but not perfect, because the odds weren’t extreme in either direction. The shorter the free bet’s price, the less winnings there are to convert in the first place, and the less cash comes out the other end.

The lesson: where you spend a free bet matters more than the size of it. Before you use one, run it on the tool, it takes ten seconds and tells you whether you’re about to get real value or leave most of it on the table.

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🔄 Odds Converter: Same Price, Different Language

Not every book or every country quotes odds the same way. Decimal is standard across Europe, American (moneyline) dominates US books, and fractional is still the default in the UK. 

The Odds Converter does the boring part for you: type a number into any one of the four fields Probability %, Decimal, American, or Fractional and it fills in the other three instantly.

It’s less about finding value and more about not getting confused. If you’re comparing a Pinnacle price in decimal against a US book quoting +150, or you just want to know what “3/1” actually means in terms of real probability, this is the tool that translates it without you doing the math by hand.

Let’s look back at Morocco’s odds from the free bet example (1.77). Drop that into the Decimal field and the Odds Converter instantly shows you the same price in every other format:

– Probability: 56.50%, the probability that Morocco wins, according to that price (1 ÷ 1.77).

– American: -130, since 1.77 is a favorite’s price (under 2.00), it shows as a minus number: you’d need to stake $130 to win $100 profit.

– Fractional: roughly 0.77/1, this is the UK-style read on the same price, for every 0.77 cents you bet, you’d profit about $1.

Same price, three different ways bettors use around the world. 

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🧮 Poisson: Predicting How Many Goals a Match Will Have

At its core, the Poisson distribution is a mathematical tool that takes an average and turns it into exact probabilities. In sports betting, it helps you answer questions like: “If a match averages 2.4 goals, what’s the exact chance it finishes with exactly 2?”

The goal isn’t to replace the bookmaker’s price, it’s to build your own numbers and compare it to theirs. If your Poisson probability for “Over 3.5 goals” comes out higher than what the book’s odds imply, that’s worth running through the EV tool. You’re not just trusting the price, you’re checking it against the math.

Let’s go back to Morocco vs Canada. Say the match’s expected goal average comes out to 2.4 total goals. Plug that in as your Average (λ), set the Proposition to 2, and Poisson calculates the probability of exactly 2 goals being scored: 26.1%, with fair odds of 3.83.

The same Average (λ) and Proposition break down into every angle around that line:

– Less than 2 goals (30.8%, fair odds 3.24)

– More than 2 (43.0%, fair odds 2.32)

– At least 2 (69.2%, fair odds 1.45)

– At most 2 (57.0%, fair odds 1.76)

One input, five fair prices to check against whatever a bookmaker is actually offering.

Run the match through Poisson first, then let BetUnfair tell you whether the price you’re being offered beats the number you just built yourself.

That’s the rest of the panel: Free Bet Converter, Odds Converter, and Poisson, alongside the EV, Kelly Stake, Margin, De-Vig, and Arbitrage tools from Parts 1 and 2. Eight tools, one dashboard, all built to turn raw odds into real decisions.

Try them all yourself at betunfair.io. Sign up and test every one of them with your free 5-day trial.

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Keywords: odds format converter · decimal to american odds conversion · fractional odds explained · poisson distribution betting · goal probability calculator · correct score probability model · how to hedge a free bet · free bet conversion rate · implied probability from odds · predicting total goals in a match