Pinnacle just posted their full market for who wins the ATP US Open in 2026. Twenty players priced, from Carlos Alcaraz as the clear favorite down to Andrey Rublev at the bottom of the list.

Alcaraz sits at +172. Before we get to why that number is interesting, it helps to convert it into something easier to compare.

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Turning +172 Into a Probability

American odds like +172 don’t tell you much on their own if you’re used to reading decimal prices. Use BetUnfair Odds Converter tool and watch the odds in any form.

36.76%, that’s the market’s estimate of his chance to win the whole tournament before a single match has been played.

Running the same tool on a few others from Pinnacle’s board shows how quickly the probability drops:

• Alexander Zverev (+326) = 23.5%
• Novak Djokovic (+769) = 11.5%

This sharp drop in probability is normal for an outright market with this many players priced.

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Why Alcaraz’s +172 Looks Different From Scheffler’s +501

We wrote about this exact type of market recently when Scottie Scheffler won a golf tournament by eight strokes and his price still closed at +501 (an implied probability of only ~16.6%). Read our blog here .Both are outright markets on deep fields, so why is the tennis favorite priced at more than double the probability of the golf favorite?

Dimension	Tennis Grand Slam (US Open)	Golf Tournament (PGA Tour)
Size & Structure	128 players in a 1-vs-1 single-elimination bracket	120+ players all competing simultaneously over 4 rounds
Path to Winning	Must win 7 individual head-to-head matches sequentially	Must outscore all 120+ players at once over 72 holes
Field Elimination	Lower-ranked players get eliminated by other seeds early	Anyone in the field can post the low score on any given week
Predictability	High: Rankings predict match outcomes consistently	Moderate: High week-to-week score variance

The Takeaway: Tennis rankings predict round-to-round results far more reliably than golf scores predict a week’s outcome. A top ATP player beats a lower-ranked player in a single match far more consistently than a top golfer outscores a stacked 120-man field over four rounds. That consistency is exactly why a tennis favorite in a 128-player draw is priced closer to a coin flip than a golf favorite in a field half that size.

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Where the Board Gets Interesting

The top of Pinnacle’s list is straightforward. It’s the middle and lower parts of a top 20-player outright where a price is more likely to be shaped by something other than pure form.

The US Open draw is stacked with American names: Ben Shelton (+810), Taylor Fritz (+1179), Tommy Paul, Brandon Nakashima, and Learner Tien. At a tournament played in the US, crowd support and public betting volume usually run higher on local players.

The question worth asking isn’t just who wins, but if that extra public attention has pushed a price further than what the real numbers are.

This is where De-Vigged Odds and EV Comparison come in:

1. Strip the Vig: Pinnacle’s price has the bookmaker’s margin baked in. The first step is stripping that margin to get a fair, no-vig number.

2. Compare Against Soft Books: Comparing that fair number against what soft books offer reveals whether a price carries genuine value or just looks appealing because a familiar name is attached to it.

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Where BetUnfair Fits Into This

BetUnfair applies the same tools to this US Open outright board as it does to any single match:

• De-Vigged Odds: Strips the margin from a price like Alcaraz’s +172 to show the fair number underneath it.

• EV Comparison: Checks that fair number against soft books to pinpoint where real pricing gaps exist.

• Dropping Odds Alerts: Catches price shifts when Pinnacle moves any of these 20 prices due to seeding updates, injury reports, or draw movements.

• Bet Tracker & CLV: If you back a player before the tournament starts and their price shortens through the rounds, Bet Tracker automatically calculates your Closing Line Value (CLV) on the outright wager.

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FAQ

How do I convert American odds like +172 to a decimal price?

Divide the positive American odds by 100 and add 1: 172/100) + 1 = 2.72$.

Why is a tennis Grand Slam favorite priced shorter than a golf favorite?

Tennis is a single-elimination bracket where the favorite only faces one opponent per round, and rankings predict individual match results reliably. Golf forces every player to compete against the entire field at once with much higher week-to-week variance.

Does BetUnfair track tennis outright markets like the US Open winner?

Yes. De-Vigged Odds, EV Comparison, Dropping Odds Alerts, and Bet Tracker’s Closing Line Value all apply to tennis outright markets identically to single matches.

Why do some players on an outright board look shorter than their ranking suggests?

Public betting and home-crowd demand can push market prices on familiar local names lower. Comparing a sharp book’s de-vigged price against soft books highlights whether that extra attention has distorted the line.

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Try It Yourself

Start your free 5-day BetUnfair trial at betunfair.io and see how De-Vigged Odds, EV Comparison, and Closing Line Value apply just as directly to a tournament like the US Open as they do to tonight’s match.

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